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Corona Virus Spreading Out Of China
AK Rich
Apr 8 2020, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE (Kristofer Dahl @ Apr 8 2020, 11:50 AM) *
Yes, it seems so. And this can take us into political ground if we are not careful - which is what seems to be happening now.

I am more than happy to discuss politics - but I have found that for the good of the community it is best left out here.



Generally yeah, if we use our own analysis - discussions seem to get more friendly and contain less 'fake news' stuff.


Ah ok. I understand what you are saying now and I agree. Thanks for the clarification. I think we just had a little bump in the road so to speak and we will be staying more on point now. Thanks for your patience in not closing down what is an important discussion, Kris.

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Mertay
Apr 8 2020, 10:38 PM
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So good news for USA estimated death gone from 80.000 to 60.000 considering if current precautions continue till august. I heard California was extremely successful and now the government is analyzing their success.

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jstcrsn
Apr 8 2020, 11:10 PM
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QUOTE (Mertay @ Apr 8 2020, 10:38 PM) *
So good news for USA estimated death gone from 80.000 to 60.000 considering if current precautions continue till august. I heard California was extremely successful and now the government is analyzing their success.

they have sun , warm weather and vitamin d from walking in the sun. I think hiding inside is a death threat to someone that is vulnerable

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AK Rich
Apr 9 2020, 12:24 AM
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QUOTE (Mertay @ Apr 8 2020, 01:38 PM) *
So good news for USA estimated death gone from 80.000 to 60.000 considering if current precautions continue till august. I heard California was extremely successful and now the government is analyzing their success.

Good news indeed. I think the revision to 60,000 is actually down from 100,000 - 240,000 though instead of 80,000 which is even better.(Edit: Apparently these IHME models are being revised more frequently than I was previously aware and 80,000 revised down to 60,000 may be the most recent adjustment) I think, and I am hopeful that as we continue to get more data, that those projections will continue to fall and that we will end up with a result that keeps us below the avg seasonal flu morbidity rate.
Early on there were projections and speculation that millions in this county could die but as we move forward and continue to get more data, things are looking better and more manageable.

Other good news is that in New York, hospital admissions and ICU admissions have fallen over the past few days and the number of people being released from hospitals has risen. Hopefully this continues as a trend as the death rate going down is sure to follow.

As far as California goes, I think they have done a pretty good job there. I wasn't real happy with the mayor of San Francisco shutting things down the way he did because I think the governor should have taken the lead on that kind of action. But it has worked out for them and right now they are looking really good in spite of the kind of international traffic that flows through there. I think the travel ban from China early on helped too. It seems that in New York that international travelers that were infected may have taken the long way around from Europe probably contributed to the outbreak there, as well as a slower response by leaders there in regards to implementing a shutdown. A full travel ban from Europe implemented sooner maybe could have helped too.

There is still a chance that this could taper off as we move into summer. I realize that there are outbreaks in the southern hemisphere too but we have to consider that those countries are moving into the winter flu season as countries in the northern hemisphere are moving away from it.

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klasaine
Apr 9 2020, 12:46 AM
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Going out as little as possible is what is helping us.
It's been raining here in LA and pretty much all over CA for most of the last two weeks solid, which is keeping peeps inside. Also, as I've mentioned, the governor and the mayor of SF and LA are being really hard line in dealing with people who purposefully disregard the rules.
Almost everybody here in Los Angeles wears some type of mask when they enter any type of shop (that's opened).

The real 'trick' will be to see if we can continue to be vigilant. If we slack off because it looks like we're doing OK - all hell could break loose.

Angelenos want to get the back to work, so the mantra here is, "the longer you break the rules, the longer we have to do this - stay the fuck home, and if you go to the store, wear a mask".

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AK Rich
Apr 9 2020, 04:08 AM
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Things aren't too bad here in Alaska. Last I saw there were about 200 cases and maybe 6 or 8 deaths. The mayor of Anchorage followed suit with the mayor of San Francisco and took action with shutdowns before the governor did and the restrictions there are a bit more strict than the governors restrictions for the rest of the state with more businesses able to stay open as long as they practice social distancing.

At least one grocery store out here in the valley has installed sneeze guards at the checkout counters. And there are still some items that are a bit harder to find including TP, paper towels and facial tissue, some canned goods, especially soup, flour and sugar, some cleaning products and probably a few other things that Stacie and l forget at the moment.

My neighbor went to the valley hospital for some blood work the other day and said that all but 2 floors of the hospital are shut down. The main building is probably 5 or 6 floors. The reason being that most elective procedures have been put off until the danger is over so they can have plenty of space for C-19 patients if needed. As of now they might have two C-19 patients there but I am not sure about that. There have been a few cases in the valley but it's possible they may have went to one of the Anchorage hospitals.

I went into Anchorage today for my immunotherapy and chemo treatment and noticed that there were significantly less cars in the lot than usual so I suspect that some of that hospital may be shut down as well. My oncologist is in a separate building than the main hospital building and there were significantly less cars there in the parking garage for patients too. All of the doctors, PA's, nurses and staff were wearing masks as were the patients except for one guy that the head nurse kind of scolded and reminded that he was high risk for C-19 and that he should be wearing a mask to protect others as well as himself and then gave him one to wear. Everyone's temp is scanned before they let you in past the receptionists and inside they do a great job of keeping all the chairs and surfaces wiped down as patients come and go and there are plenty of bottles of hand sanitizer spread throughout the main floor area as well as the isolated rooms.

Traffic going in and out of Anchorage was definitely reduced but there was still a fair amount of cars on the road, more than I thought there would be but it was pretty smooth sailing. It usually is if it isn't rush hour but I always avoid that so I don't really know how much that has changed. Life out here at the lake is pretty quiet. From my place, on a clear day or night, l can see air traffic coming and going from Anchorage International and Jber which is the joint Army/Air force base and I can see that air traffic is greatly reduced. It's a bit eerie and kind of reminds me of right after 911. Even the small aircraft traffic like Super Cubs and the like is greatly reduced.

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Todd Simpson
Apr 9 2020, 04:52 AM
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It seems many folks are just abandoning their animals out of fear that somehow their pets might end up infecting the owners with covid19. The good news is that there is very little chance of this and that the pets are more likely to get infected from the owners than the other way around. So if you have pets, it's safe to keep them smile.gif This is a interview with an animal health expert.



A bit more bad news from New York. It's the highest Death Toll yet in Epicenter here in the states. The "curve" is flattening but 779 people passing away in a single day is just flat out horrible. 2,000 police officers in NY have tested positive. My heart goes out to folks in New York. We have a lot of infections in Florida, but we have nothing near as bad as New York. If any of our members are in New York, please be safe.


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Kristofer Dahl
Apr 9 2020, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE (klasaine @ Apr 9 2020, 01:46 AM) *
Going out as little as possible is what is helping us.


Same here in Sweden!


QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Apr 9 2020, 05:52 AM) *
It seems many folks are just abandoning their animals out of fear that somehow their pets might end up infecting the owners with covid19. The good news is that there is very little chance of this and that the pets are more likely to get infected from the owners than the other way around. So if you have pets, it's safe to keep them smile.gif This is a interview with an animal health expert.



A bit more bad news from New York. It's the highest Death Toll yet in Epicenter here in the states. The "curve" is flattening but 779 people passing away in a single day is just flat out horrible. 2,000 police officers in NY have tested positive. My heart goes out to folks in New York. We have a lot of infections in Florida, but we have nothing near as bad as New York. If any of our members are in New York, please be safe.



Let's completely leave out the embedded videos in the thread from now on - so we can keep it alive.

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Mertay
Apr 9 2020, 09:46 AM
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With pet/animals, the virus sticks to their fur just like its can for example on a grocery bag etc. and it can reach inside their bodies. But the thing is it can't or very limited replicate itself as their metabolism is very different than ours.

It has news potential I can agree with that but there is also a potential some ignorant idiot may abandon his/her cat after watching such news. Thats why I really dislike tv's showing stuff like that.

Also TV's don't cover family abuse cause of lock-down. There are many woman (even children) getting hurt by their likely un-employed husband who's always at home but yet again they have no voice.

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AK Rich
Apr 9 2020, 07:54 PM
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QUOTE (Mertay @ Apr 9 2020, 12:46 AM) *
Also TV's don't cover family abuse cause of lock-down. There are many woman (even children) getting hurt by their likely un-employed husband who's always at home but yet again they have no voice.

There are stories about that getting some traction here in the US, but not a lot. Recently the media is a bit focused on the disproportionate impact on African Americans and other minorities because of increased underlying conditions among those groups such as Diabetes and Hypertention among other things as well as many being more exposed in the general public or large numbers of other workers because they are still working in jobs that are considered essential. Also it seems that in many cases or in some areas, men are falling victim to the virus in much higher numbers than women.

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jstcrsn
Apr 9 2020, 10:17 PM
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dr scott jensen is one of many being urged to blame covid-19 for deaths not being tested for it ,as well as many dieing with covid but not because of it thus inflating numbers ..this , to me, is troubling

And some might get mad , but this disease affects many conditions brought on by being overweight ..Is it allowable to talk about keeping oneself healthy and yes I know it kills healthy people too , but the numbers would surely be lower

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AK Rich
Apr 9 2020, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE (jstcrsn @ Apr 9 2020, 01:17 PM) *
dr scott jensen is one of many being urged to blame covid-19 for deaths not being tested for it ,as well as many dieing with covid but not because of it thus inflating numbers ..this , to me, is troubling

And some might get mad , but this disease affects many conditions brought on by being overweight ..Is it allowable to talk about keeping oneself healthy and yes I know it kills healthy people too , but the numbers would surely be lower

It's not really the virus that kills directly but has more to do with complications that come from it such as pneumonia, sepsis, heart failure etc, so essentially it is still the cause of death in some cases. In other cases, if you get infected and you have underlying conditions that make you weaker such as diabetes, hypertension, immunodeficiency or are compromised in some other way, you may not have otherwise died if it weren't for the virus putting you over the edge. Obesity is a big problem in this country and has all kinds of negative effects on ones health which puts those people at a greater risk of death if they are infected, but in all these examples it is still the virus that puts those people over the edge and kills them. So I see those death numbers as legit for the most part if not completely as long as there is a definite diagnosis of Covid-19, otherwise it would sound a bit sketchy and could be over inflating the numbers of deaths, so I can understand Dr. Jensen's point too but I'm not sure how significant the difference would be.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/physician-bla...ount-guidelines

I think you could say that underlying conditions and bad heath are exploits that the virus takes advantage of making death more likely for the host in a sense, but that's probably not the best analogy. The bottom line here is that this thing is going to kill the weakest of us that become infected. It's the law of the jungle in effect. Only the strongest survive.

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Todd Simpson
Apr 10 2020, 03:15 AM
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Some numbers on the current state of affairs in the states.

1.) 17 MILLION UNEMPLOYED :


This is the highest number of officially unemployed people since we started keeping track of the numbers. During the GREAT DEPRESSION we lost 13 Million jobs over 3 years. We have lost 17 Million Jobs in the past several weeks and we still have more to go. Economists have no idea how long it will take for us to recover from this or if we can recover fully at all. Some jobs are just gone forever.
Attached Image




2.)NEARLY 2,000 DEAD IN A SINGLE DAY


We are losing around a couple thousand people each and every day at this point. The numbers are just staggeringly bad. Hopefully, this is the apex and we will start seeing a decrease in the number of dead each day. See post by AKRICH below. Even if numbers start to decline, we are still looking at tens of thousands of dead, just in this country and in the space of a few months. Not to mention the tens of thousands of dead all over the world. Covid is now the leading cause of Death in the United States.
Attached Image






3.)NEARLY HALF A MILLION INFECTED


We are fast approaching half a million people infected. We are also starting to see new trends that are just becoming apparent. For example, people of color are getting sick and getting dead at a rate that far exceeds the rate of white folks as a percentage of society. Black people are more likely to be poor, more likely to have underlying conditions and less likely to have health insurance. Like most things, minorities and the poor are bearing the brunt of it.

4.)DOMESTIC VIOLENCE CASES SPIKE DUE TO LOCKDOWN

In every country around the globe we are seeing a spike in domestic violence reports. The lockdown has created a situation where abusers and the abused are locked in one place with no real way to escape. Women and children are being abused in record number due to social isolation as a result of the virus. Also, the severity of abuse seems to have increased as well. Social isolation increases pressure as does the economic uncertainty of all this. The result is a big spike in those unable to defend themselves or leave being abused.

5.)TRACED TO BATS


Scientists now believe that the virus probably started in bats and made the step to humans via blood and or urine from the original infected bat. It's suspected that the original infected bat may be from the "wet market" in Wuhan China where the initial outbreak started. For more see last video link below. As the virus matures, it may mutate and become part of our seasonal virus list. E.G. Just like regular FLU, we may see new strains of covid19 and get new covid shots, just like flu shots, each year. Fun.



ONE BIT OF GOOD NEWS!!!!!


THE CURVE IS GETTING FLATTER!!! Due to social distancing, it looks like the rate of infection has stopped accelerating. Thank God for that. At least it's stopped getting faster every day. New York is the "first in" to the worst of things. So every other state is looking to them as a template on what to expect and how to best cope. So it looks like things have "peaked" which is a victory in a sea of loss and death.

Stay home. Stay safe, try to stay sane.

numbers taken from NBC news
https://youtu.be/TWi_ucqdC9M

domestic abuse spike information taken from DW News Germany
https://youtu.be/szK7WSRZPeM

origins of corona, bats from wet market taken from NBC news
https://youtu.be/f2aDEPZbLEI

**Always vet your information if possible. Don't trust facebook for anything. Social media is NOT a good place to get news. Try to source news through CDC, W.H.O, NBC, CBS, PBS, BBC, DW. All of these sources are about as good as news gets in a world where nearly all information/news is vulnerable to some sort of dilution/political slant.

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AK Rich
Apr 10 2020, 04:54 AM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Apr 9 2020, 06:15 PM) *
2.)2,000 DEAD IN A SINGLE DAY [/b]

We are losing a couple thousand people each and every day at this point. The numbers are just staggeringly bad.

Yeah, we had a big spike and a peak on April 7th with 1,970 deaths but those numbers have declined yesterday and today so hopefully that trend will continue and we will be on the downhill side of the curve.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-new...-us/ar-BB12o7aQ

There is a graph with this article.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/...y-2020-n1177936

And a time lapse sort of graph with this article.

https://www.wvlt.tv/content/news/Doctor-sho...-569524971.html

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AK Rich
Apr 10 2020, 09:41 PM
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Here are a couple links to some interesting videos with good info and animations to illustrate how these viruses invade our bodies, penetrate cells that the virus then turns into a factory of sorts to create millions of copies of itself and then obliterate the healthy cell as those millions of copies are released to repeat the process, as well as some other info about pneumonia and vaccines and how our immune system works to combat these viruses.

https://youtu.be/5DGwOJXSxqg

https://youtu.be/Rpj0emEGShQ

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Todd Simpson
Apr 11 2020, 01:06 AM
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Good stuff!! I have seen several things about new trials for antibody type solutions in the works. Hopefully, we will see some effective treatments for this very soon.

Todd

QUOTE (AK Rich @ Apr 10 2020, 04:41 PM) *
Here are a couple links to some interesting videos with good info and animations to illustrate how these viruses invade our bodies, penetrate cells that the virus then turns into a factory of sorts to create millions of copies of itself and then obliterate the healthy cell as those millions of copies are released to repeat the process, as well as some other info about pneumonia and vaccines and how our immune system works to combat these viruses.

https://youtu.be/5DGwOJXSxqg

https://youtu.be/Rpj0emEGShQ

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AK Rich
Apr 11 2020, 02:39 AM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Apr 9 2020, 06:15 PM) *
2.)NEARLY 2,000 DEAD IN A SINGLE DAY [/b]

We are losing around a couple thousand people each and every day at this point. The numbers are just staggeringly bad. Hopefully, this is the apex and we will start seeing a decrease in the number of dead each day. See post by AKRICH below. Even if numbers start to decline, we are still looking at tens of thousands of dead, just in this country and in the space of a few months. Not to mention the tens of thousands of dead all over the world. Covid is now the leading cause of Death in the United States.

According to the graph at this link that is updated daily. The daily count of deaths went back up and surpassed 2000 for today. Not so good. But as we see numbers for both hospitalized, and admitted to the ICU continue to drop, and the numbers of C-19 patients being released from the hospitals continue to rise, those death counts should follow and drop too as they are expected to lag behind a bit. Keep the faith!

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/...y-2020-n1177936

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Todd Simpson
Apr 12 2020, 12:39 AM
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GREAT news that in NEW YORK (our epicenter for covid) that ICU admissions WENT DOWN!!!! Finally.

I shared a vid about this in my other thread that is packed with embedded vids. It's wonderful news that we are finally not going up and up every single day. We may have finally turned the corner on this thing. We have more deaths than China at this point, where this whole thing started, and despite the fact that they have about triple our population.

It's still very very sad to see nearly a couple thousand or so people lost to this thing each and every day. All we can do is pray and hope for the best and for some medicine to come through as quickly as possible. Until then, try to stay safe and sane and stay home smile.gif


quote name='AK Rich' date='Apr 10 2020, 09:39 PM' post='776541']
According to the graph at this link that is updated daily. The daily count of deaths went back up and surpassed 2000 for today. Not so good. But as we see numbers for both hospitalized, and admitted to the ICU continue to drop, and the numbers of C-19 patients being released from the hospitals continue to rise, those death counts should follow and drop too as they are expected to lag behind a bit. Keep the faith!

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/...y-2020-n1177936
[/quote]

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Mertay
Apr 14 2020, 10:55 AM
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Some bad news;

-Chinese researchers concluded that half of the patients who suffered the virus severe, 3/1 of others endure brain or nervous system damage while they recover from the virus. So after recovery, people have to monitor each other for signs similar to suggesting a stroke. This was also being discussed by EU and USA researchers on TV this week...

-Iran economically surrendered to the virus, life will continue pretty much as was before their pandemic. No one can estimate numbers of lives will be lost to this.

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Arpeggio
Apr 14 2020, 09:04 PM
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QUOTE (Mertay @ Apr 14 2020, 10:55 AM) *
-Iran economically surrendered to the virus, life will continue pretty much as was before their pandemic. No one can estimate numbers of lives will be lost to this.


Do you mean they surrendered their health in favor of their economy by not having a total lock-down? Hopefully for everyone else there will be a vaccine around the corner and a way out of this mess, a compulsory vaccine for everyone. This will be accompanied by surveillance and contact tracing. Travel movements will be restricted on non-compliance. This will all be made easier with telecommunications infrastructure. There are desires to make owning and carrying a smart phone wherever you go compulsory, although I'm not sure if that will be an easy thing to force but hopefully people will understand and agree. There's a lot of people at the top working on this for our own sake to save us from this crisis, just look it up.

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