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Corona Virus Spreading Out Of China
jstcrsn
Mar 25 2020, 02:31 AM
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QUOTE (fkalich @ Mar 20 2020, 03:02 AM) *
I freaking knew two months ago, it was obviously inevitable. I bought masks, gloves, sanitizer, stocked u on food then, i knew it was coming.

If someone like me in Kansas City knew it was coming two months ago, why didn't the Administration? We are going to pay for that, and they will just try to blame it on somebody else. They should have gotten into warp speed producing what our medical people needed months ago. That is the real biggie, that those people are going to be overwhelmed, and not even have the protective gear that they need.

Well, just try to avoid getting it in this first wave, things should be a bit better after that.

I am trying to make sense of this post ...Why ?

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klasaine
Mar 25 2020, 02:56 AM
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Cali is not even considering re-starting schools and larger gatherings until at least May 6th (or 8th) and I'm betting that schools won't resume until next fall. Just write off the spring semester.
As non-alarmist as I am about this, I'm also a realist. Easter is a pipe dream and dangerously early. We all need to keep our distance for at least a solid 6 to 8 weeks.

On a brighter note, most folks here have stopped their panic hoarding and you can find what you need. the national guard will probably be employed to keep people from partying on the beaches and in the parks.
My biggest concern here in LA (and SF) is that it will spread unchecked in the homeless communities.

On another bright note I can definitively tell you what is the best 12" replacement speaker for a Fender Blues Jr.
Eminence 'Cannabis Rex' hands down, no contest. *I tried every 12" I had in all of my amps and cabs - american, british, hybrid - the C Rex is the one. And yes, it took hours over several days.

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Todd Simpson
Mar 25 2020, 07:38 AM
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New York (our epicenter) is still really worried about having enough supplies and things getting worse every day.



Here is a vid with a doctor treating covid patients on the front lines. The problem of Doctors getting sick is a serious issue. If they don't have the protective gear they need, (some are being told to buy their own gear and also re use your protective masks, which is just not a good idea). If the doctors start getting sick from not having enough masks, they can't treat any patient, corona or otherwise.

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Todd Simpson
Mar 25 2020, 08:08 AM
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Egad. I had not even thought about that. You are right. It's going to burn through the homeless communities like wild fire. Cali has a huge homeless population and they are very at risk. Also, none of them have health insurance so they can't get regular admittance to a hospital normally. They have to use the emergency room like we would use a regular doctor. Emergency rooms can't turn people away even if they can't pay. The aged, infirm, and now the homeless, seem like the most vulnerable populations. I really hope these projections are way way off. I keep seeing numbers from CDC and others that just seem like insanity. I just can't bring myself to accept the idea that we could lose tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of our countrymen before we find a way to stop this.

QUOTE (klasaine @ Mar 24 2020, 09:56 PM) *
My biggest concern here in LA (and SF) is that it will spread unchecked in the homeless communities.

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jstcrsn
Mar 25 2020, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE (Mertay @ Mar 23 2020, 07:10 AM) *
This is interesting;

Turkey got 2 million kits from China this morning (gives result in 15 minutes) an China didn't charge for it.

Apparently in 1919 a coholera outbreak occured in China killing 300.000 people. Atatürk (founder of Turkey) donated a large amount of supply and medicine to them and as a thank-you they donated the kits to us today.

On a side note
French border guards seize a truck with a 130,000 thousand face masks bound for Britain (mail on line news
Czech Republic seized 100,000 masks from china bound for Italy (Independent)
Germans seize supplies headed for Switzerland (RT)
Kind of shows when the chips are down , The EU falls apart

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Arpeggio
Mar 25 2020, 12:34 PM
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https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hosp...with-vitamin-c/

“The patients who received vitamin C did significantly better than those who did not get vitamin C............vitamin C levels in coronavirus patients drop dramatically when they suffer sepsis, an inflammatory response that occurs when their bodies overreact to the infection."

Study for Sepsis: https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-...2564-3/fulltext

"The hospital mortality was 8.5% (4 of 47) in the treatment group compared with 40.4% (19 of 47) in the control group (P < .001)"

Sepsis is one of the leading complication of influenza deaths. 11 million deaths a year.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sepsis-d...-year-vnjqdmpts

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Darius Wave
Mar 25 2020, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE (klasaine @ Mar 25 2020, 01:56 AM) *
... I'm betting that schools won't resume until next fall. Just write off the spring semester.
As non-alarmist as I am about this, I'm also a realist. Easter is a pipe dream and dangerously early. We all need to keep our distance for at least a solid 6 to 8 weeks.


Agree. I don;t believe in a miracle that after all this situation, we will be able to return to our regular schedule within weekes. I keep my fingers crossed to at least start a regular giging since september. I mean...I wish....I truily wish this would go away within weeks...but same as you, I'm a realist.

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AK Rich
Mar 25 2020, 06:43 PM
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Hoping to get the whole country back to work by Easter I agree is probably a bit too optimistic but the plan has always been about constantly re-evaluating the data to determine how to move forward and it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that parts of the country could start working again. We will just have to see when we get there and there is certainly nothing wrong with hoping for the best even though it may not be possible.

A bit off topic maybe but it had occurred to me that doomsday preppers and those that cater to them don't look so overly paranoid anymore and are probably feeling a bit vindicated lately.

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AK Rich
Mar 25 2020, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Mar 24 2020, 10:38 PM) *
(some are being told to buy their own gear and also re use your protective masks, which is just not a good idea).

Sounds like a bit of a dubious claim to me. I doubt that a healthcare worker can procure their own gear nearly as fast as a hospital can get it for them, especially when hospitals are the number one priority as to who gets that gear now. Also, there are indeed risks with the extended use and reuse of N95 masks, but if the manufacturers recommendations and CDC guidelines are followed, those risks are minimized. So, not necessarily a bad idea.

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/hcwcontrol...anceextuse.html

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Mertay
Mar 25 2020, 07:30 PM
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Here when someone is tested positive, they take them to isolation immediately (for example without letting them take stuff from home).

Incidents start to happen as while they're waiting for the test result some escape and get cought by the police.

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Todd Simpson
Mar 26 2020, 02:26 AM
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Let's wait to pass judgement until we see if our own states can manage to not start stealing ventilators from each other. We are already seeing citizens of our own country doing massive price gouging which is just sickening imho.

QUOTE (jstcrsn @ Mar 25 2020, 07:29 AM) *
On a side note
French border guards seize a truck with a 130,000 thousand face masks bound for Britain (mail on line news
Czech Republic seized 100,000 masks from china bound for Italy (Independent)
Germans seize supplies headed for Switzerland (RT)
Kind of shows when the chips are down , The EU falls apart



Egad. That's rough. People are afraid to get positive tested if they think they are gonna get thrown in a place full of sick people that they may never escape alive. Some folks say this is the problem with "Self Testing". If we do self test and it's positive, how many folks would admit it? Some folks don't eat if they don't work. Millions of folks actually. We have a big chunk of our population that can't write a check for five hundred bucks if they had to. Folks that are one paycheck away from the street. now those people are losing their jobs in food service and what not. A lot of people are very afraid. We are getting a bit stimulus package that should put a little food on the table for everyone, but even that check is a few weeks away. In countries where they are not doing stuff like that, I imagine people are downright desperate.

We are seeing famous folks coming down with it as well. There is no way to escape it if one is out and about doing a press tour and such. Idris Elba is the latest one and here he is with his daughter. He tested positive which means he has also given it to his daughter sad.gif




QUOTE (Mertay @ Mar 25 2020, 02:30 PM) *
Here when someone is tested positive, they take them to isolation immediately (for example without letting them take stuff from home).

Incidents start to happen as while they're waiting for the test result some escape and get cought by the police.

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AK Rich
Mar 27 2020, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Mar 25 2020, 05:26 PM) *
Some folks say this is the problem with "Self Testing". If we do self test and it's positive, how many folks would admit it?

I am fairly certain that all tests are to be submitted to the CDC for confirmation one way or the other. That is where the final confirmation has come from after tests have been "presumed positive."
The first case in this state was "presumed positive" until it was confirmed by the CDC.

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Mertay
Mar 27 2020, 06:31 PM
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-969 people died in Italy in a single day
-Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock are infected
-USA surpasses China with most virus cases

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Todd Simpson
Mar 27 2020, 08:34 PM
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With self testing, they are not forcing anyone to submit results. Doing so would be pretty tricky. So folks that self test can just look at their results and keep it to themselves if they want. Only tests that run through labs / cdc are being included in the official numbers.

QUOTE (AK Rich @ Mar 27 2020, 12:20 PM) *
I am fairly certain that all tests are to be submitted to the CDC for confirmation one way or the other. That is where the final confirmation has come from after tests have been "presumed positive."
The first case in this state was "presumed positive" until it was confirmed by the CDC.




I found this news VERY disturbing when I saw it. USA now has more infected than CHINA! We have become the global epicenter of the virus outbreak. Not a good sign. Whats worse, it's still going up every single day. Despite this, we keep hearing about some folks wanting to "open back up" before we even get to the peak of infections. It seems like a good way to infect way more people sad.gif

This is a pic from a briefing in new york. No more press people. Just military people in the audience spread several feet apart.
Attached Image

I saw that news about italy as well. About 1,000 per day dead from the virus. It's really gone nuts in Italy. They are out of space in all the cemetarys in the breakout area. Miiltary trucks are having to take the coffins elsewhere to be buried. They are not big on cremation in Italy but they are starting to have no other choice.

Sorry to hear about the Prime himself coming down with this. I hope he makes it out the other side. Most people will make it through with minimal symptoms. Some folks just don't make it.

In New york, hospitilzation jumped 40 percent in one day!!!! New York subways are still running and people are crammed in and getting sick. New yorks health system is being over run. People are being put in the hallway as there are no rooms left.

MOST DISTURBING: The end of the video. In New York, Doctors testing positive are being asked to go back to work after 3 days without fever. Even if they are still testing positive. So we are going to have doctors/nurses who are still positive, treating patients.

This vid from German News. The infection is expected to hit the migrant camps all over the world. Greece has a 20,000 person camp on the island of lesbos. If the virus makes it in to these packed camps, it will spread quickly.



It seems way premature to think we are anywhere close to this being over.
QUOTE (Mertay @ Mar 27 2020, 01:31 PM) *
-969 people died in Italy in a single day
-Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock are infected
-USA surpasses China with most virus cases

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AK Rich
Mar 28 2020, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Mar 27 2020, 11:34 AM) *
With self testing, they are not forcing anyone to submit results. Doing so would be pretty tricky. So folks that self test can just look at their results and keep it to themselves if they want. Only tests that run through labs / cdc are being included in the official numbers.

I certainly hope that isn't correct. I am pretty sure that early on it was ordered that all test results were to be submitted to the CDC so that we can have accurate data on infections. It makes no sense that people would be able to keep the results secret. It would be simple to enforce if people had to supply some evidence of address when obtaining a self test which I don't think are available quite yet. The first to become available is one where the swabs are sent to a lab to be tested, so not much chance of keeping that a secret. It also appears that the FDA will not approve any test that does not require a doctors approval to obtain a test in the first place.
So it looks like at this point that ALL tests will be run through labs and therefore will be included in the official numbers as they should be.

https://hbr.org/2020/03/how-to-make-at-home...us-testing-work

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/...irus-home-test/

It has been ordered by the Governor that a shelter in place order is in affect for Alaska starting today, as well as a state wide travel ban. Looks like it's going to be a quiet weekend here at the lake.

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Todd Simpson
Mar 29 2020, 02:23 AM
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As bad as we have it, we have it easy compared to Italy and Spain. Anybody here from Italy or Spain?



Sadly in the U.S. as of yet, we have ZERO FDA approved home test kits. There were some folks trying to do at home collection of swabs that could be sent in to labs and the results tracked as they should be but the FDA stepped in and pretty much said no, so far. So in the states at least, we really can't self test right now, at least not officially.

HOWEVER, There are grey/black market tests available that claim to show results at home without the need for a lab to be involved. None of these are approved FDA tests and none of the results would enter the CDC tracking. sad.gif If anyone sees an advert for a home test in the states, make sure it's been FDA approved. Hopefully soon we will have at home testing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/...irus-home-test/

in England, they do have an at home test that is self contained and requires no doctor or lab. They bought 3.5 million of these but they have not been distributed as of yet it seems since they are still be looked at to make sure the results are valid. It's an antibody test to see if a person has already had the virus. If one has antibodies to covid, one has probably had it and may not even known it. The results, if positive, would indicate the person should have some level of immunity at that point.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/...ble-within-days

QUOTE (AK Rich @ Mar 28 2020, 01:27 PM) *
I certainly hope that isn't correct. I am pretty sure that early on it was ordered that all test results were to be submitted to the CDC so that we can have accurate data on infections. It makes no sense
https://hbr.org/2020/03/how-to-make-at-home...us-testing-work

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/...irus-home-test/

Alaska is pretty remote and I'm a bit surprised to hear it's being locked down but nothing should come as a shock in these times.

It has been ordered by the Governor that a shelter in place order is in affect for Alaska starting today, as well as a state wide travel ban. Looks like it's going to be a quiet weekend here at the lake.

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jstcrsn
Mar 29 2020, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Mar 29 2020, 02:23 AM) *

There is a reason they are called drive by media , they stop throw out their story and drive away and let others pick up the peices and clean up the damage..They love a story , They love a headline ..The sky is falling..And without it they don't have a show..Life is hard enough and has enough troubles without listening chicken littles..
I think a little postivity will go a long way

This new new count has a world wide rate down to .5 percent , and that is from as high as 8 percent in some places
Things are getting better.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Todd Simpson
Mar 30 2020, 03:14 AM
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The numbers of infected are still going up all over the world, sadly. Dr. Fauci from the white house thinks we are 2 weeks away from the peak of deaths. Even the administration is saying 100,000 dead would be a "good" goal number if we can stay below it. We can be as positive as we want and still get sick. Taking care and taking steps to stay safe are all we can do. Here is the real time info on the global pandemic. The sky isn't falling. It already fell. It fell really hard on Italy and Spain. It's falling hard on New York. I just hope it doesn't fall on the rest of us. At least there is always hope smile.gif

721,233 INFECTED (not dead, thanks to crsn and rich for the correction, it's typo, I'm not a journalist so I can't really create fake news) as of this post.

QUOTE (AK Rich @ Mar 28 2020, 01:27 PM) *
I certainly hope that isn't correct. I am pretty sure that early on it was ordered that all test results were to be submitted to the CDC so that we can have accurate data on infections. It makes no sense that people would be able to keep the results secret. It would be simple to enforce if people had to supply some evidence of address when obtaining a self test which I don't think are available quite yet. The first to become available is one where the swabs are sent to a lab to be tested, so not much chance of keeping that a secret. It also appears that the FDA will not approve any test that does not require a doctors approval to obtain a test in the first place.
So it looks like at this point that ALL tests will be run through labs and therefore will be included in the official numbers as they should be.

https://hbr.org/2020/03/how-to-make-at-home...us-testing-work

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/...irus-home-test/

It has been ordered by the Governor that a shelter in place order is in affect for Alaska starting today, as well as a state wide travel ban. Looks like it's going to be a quiet weekend here at the lake.

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AK Rich
Mar 30 2020, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE (Todd Simpson @ Mar 29 2020, 06:14 PM) *
The numbers of infected are still going up all over the world, sadly. Dr. Fauci from the white house thinks we are 2 weeks away from the peak of deaths. Even the administration is saying 100,000 dead would be a "good" goal number if we can stay below it. We can be as positive as we want and still get sick. Taking care and taking steps to stay safe are all we can do. Here is the real time info on the global pandemic. The sky isn't falling. It already fell. It fell really hard on Italy and Spain. It's falling hard on New York. I just hope it doesn't fall on the rest of us. At least there is always hope smile.gif

721,233 deaths as of this post.

First of all, I think you meant to respond to Cursin, not me. Secondly, there are not anywhere near over 721,000 deaths as you stated at the end of your post. Those are cases! Aka number of infections. Take a deep breath man. The death toll worldwide as of this post was just over 34,000. And that is not even in the same ballpark as the yearly seasonal flu death totals worldwide which has actually been fairly close to 700,000. Also take note of the 159,000 plus recoveries from Covid-19 which actually seems odd to me because if you run the latest numbers, you get about a 4.7% mortality rate worldwide which would mean recoveries must be higher than listed and should be 95.3% shouldn't they? So in the US it should be over 98% recovery, right? Recovery meaning, that percentage of infected didn't die, at least not yet. The numbers listed add up to almost 23% recovery but it seems to me that it must be quite a bit higher than that and I don't believe those recovery numbers to be accurate because I think there is a good chance that they are not updated properly. A great deal of them were not even hospitalized because there was no need.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p12...h-estimate.html

And just for the record, here is today's actual quote from Fauci. I know because I watched it. He didn't predict anything, such as 100k to 200k deaths, but the media is reporting as if he did. What he did do was talk about the LATEST MODELS scenarios.

"There are things called models, and when someone creates a model, they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions.

And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot."

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Mertay
Mar 30 2020, 12:36 PM
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A video about how China succeeded (still in a struggle but life is slowly going back to normal there), I don't think the free world can take measures like that;

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